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    Southern Cross University
    European Forest Institute Mediterranean Office (EFIMED)

    Evaluating a growth model for forest management using continuous forest inventory data

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    Model evaluation should include qualitative as well as quantitative examinations of the model. The qualitative parts should comprise a critical appraisal of model logic as well as theoretical and biological realism of the model. The quantitative parts should comprise statistical tests and comparisons of predictions with observations independent of those used to fit the model. Comprehensive model evaluation requires several alternative approaches and criteria. Model evaluation is not one simple procedure, but consists of a number of interrelated steps that should not be separated from each other or from model construction. It is stressed that models can only be evaluated in relative terms, and their predictive value is always open to question. Thus, model evaluation is an ongoing process.A case study with the PBRAVO growth model for maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) in the Leiria forest, Portugal, illustrates the utility of selected criteria and graphical techniques. Based on theoretical examinations and tests with data from continuous forest inventories, we conclude that the Leiria version of the PBRAVO model does not adequately represent reality and that forecasts lack sufficient accuracy for forest management purposes.

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    Description

    Title : Evaluating a growth model for forest management using continuous forest inventory data
    Author(s) : Paula Soares, Margarida Tome, J P Skovsgaard, J K Vanclay
    Abstract : Model evaluation should include qualitative as well as quantitative examinations of the model. The qualitative parts should comprise a critical appraisal of model logic as well as theoretical and biological realism of the model. The quantitative parts should comprise statistical tests and comparisons of predictions with observations independent of those used to fit the model. Comprehensive model evaluation requires several alternative approaches and criteria. Model evaluation is not one simple procedure, but consists of a number of interrelated steps that should not be separated from each other or from model construction. It is stressed that models can only be evaluated in relative terms, and their predictive value is always open to question. Thus, model evaluation is an ongoing process.A case study with the PBRAVO growth model for maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) in the Leiria forest, Portugal, illustrates the utility of selected criteria and graphical techniques. Based on theoretical examinations and tests with data from continuous forest inventories, we conclude that the Leiria version of the PBRAVO model does not adequately represent reality and that forecasts lack sufficient accuracy for forest management purposes.
    Subject : unspecified
    Area : Other
    Language : English
    Year : 1995

    Affiliations Southern Cross University
    Journal : Forest Ecology and Management
    Volume : 71
    Issue : 3
    Pages : 251-265
    Url : http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0378-1127(94)06105-R

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    Jerome's Peer Evaluation activity

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    • Habiba Hassan Wassef, Senior professional, Independent international expert, United Nations, WHO, National Coordinator for the 7th European Framework Research Programme, National Research Center in Cairo, Egypt.
    • Thuy Nguyen, Student, Ph.D. Level, Silviculture Research Institute, Ha Noi, Vietnam, The University of Melbourne.
    • Guillaume Dupuy d'Angeac, Publisher, Collective Developments, HEC Alumni, Peerevaluation.
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